Geopolitik Energi

December 29, 2008

TEWASNYA BHUTTO: DEMI KEPENTINGAN GEOPOLITIK ENERGI?

Sekitar satu tahun lalu di Pakistan, 27 Desember 2007, hempasan peluru menembus leher Benazir Bhutto, dan kemudian disusul dengan serangan bom bunuh diri dari seorang yang tak dikenal (BBC). Dunia terhentak dengan tewasnya Bhutto, terutama Amerika Serikat (CNN). Pihak Gedung Putih menekankan walau Bhutto tewas, reformasi demokrasi di Pakistan harus tetap dijalankan, yakni pemilu Pakistan yang sebentar lagi tiba. Sepertinya menarik apa yang ditekankan oleh Amerika Serikat (AS) kepada Pakistan.

Bhutto, sebelum peristiwa serangan

Bhutto, sebelum peristiwa serangan

Sekedar untuk diketahui bersama, kembalinya Bhutto dari pengasingan ke Pakistan berkat sponsor AS. Bhutto kembali ke Pakistan pada 18 Oktober 2007, setelah bersepakat dengan Musharraf dimana semua tuduhan dan tuntutan atas korupsi terhadap dirinya dibatalkan. Sebelumnya, pada 27 Januari 2007, Bhutto sempat diundang datang ke Gedung Putih. Ini menandakan bahwa AS menekan Musharraf agar Pakistan terbuka lebar untuk Bhutto. Media AS ternama, Washington Post malah terang-terangan menyebutkan bahwa AS adalah broker (baca: makelar) kembalinya Bhutto ke Pakistan. “The U.S. came to understand that Bhutto was not a threat to stability but was instead the only possible way that we could guarantee stability and keep the presidency of Musharraf intact,” kata Mark Siegel. Siegel adalah pelobi untuk Bhutto di Washington dan banyak menyaksikan kesepakatan di balik diplomasi soal Bhutto. Jika pihak Washington menganggap bahwa Bhutto adalah bukan sebagai ancaman untuk stabilitas kawasan (baca: stabilitas kepentingan AS), lalu Musharraf dianggap apa dong?

Musharraf sejak tahun 2001 (peristiwa 9/11) dikenal yang melibatkan Pakistan sebagai sekutu dekat AS dalam perang melawan terorisme.  Musharraf pun dicaci maki di dalam negerinya sendiri; dituding sebagai boneka AS. Keikutsertaan Pakistan dalam memerangi terorisme sebenarnya adalah hal yang lucu.   Jauh hari sebelum peristiwa 9/11, Pakistan sebenarnya diduga terlibat dalam mensupport logistik hingga pelatihan anggota Taliban di masa Uni Sovyet menduduki Afghanistan. Tak heran, para pelaku peristiwa 9/11 pun banyak yang berasal dari Pakistan.Pelakunya adalah ISI (intelijen Pakistan) dan CIA. (Saya pikir BAKIN juga terlibat mendukung pada masa-masa itu; mengirim orang-orang Indonesia untuk dilatih di Pakistan). Targetnya sama: mengincar Afghanistan demi kepentingan energi  (penting klik KOMPAS). Inilah yang diketahui oleh Bhutto dan suaminya. Bhutto bahkan menuding Musharraf terlibat dalam rangkaian setting intelijen tersebut. Memang agak aneh, padahal Bhutto sendiri dapat kembali ke Pakistan dengan support AS pula. Tapi, itulah politik.

Tidak Ada Teman Abadi, Kecuali Demi Kepentingan Energi

Kedekatan Pakistan pasca 9/11 2001, membuat Pakistan mendapat kucuran dana luar biasa dari AS (whitehouse), diantaranya kucuran dana sebesar 1,5 Miliar USD untuk bidang militer tahun 2005-2009. Belum pula pada tahun 2004, Pakistan dianggap sebagai Major Non-NATO Ally oleh George W. Bush. Itu masih belum seberapa, karena masih banyak kucuran dana yang diterima oleh Pakistan.

Tapi, sesuai sifat alam, angin bisa berubah haluan. Begitu juga sikap politik Pakistan.  Musharraf yang melakukan kudeta militer tahun 1999, mulai dekat dekat dengan Iran dan China. Pakistan ternyata mulai membuka diri untuk proyek bersama pipa gas dari Iran.

rencana jalur pipa Iran-Pakistan-India

Pakistan membuka diri atas rencana  pembangunan pipa gas dari Iran. Pipa itu akan melewati Iran sepanjang  1100 Kilometer, 1000 Kilometer di wilayah Pakistan, dan 600 Kilometer di wilayah India.  Rencana pembangunan jalur pipa ini telah berjalan melalui rangkaian panjang perjanjian antara Iran, Pakistan, dan India sejak tahun 1993.  Pembangunan ini diprediksi memakan biaya sekita 7 Triliun Dollar AS.

Iran sebagai negara produsen gas terbesar di dunia mempunyai kepentingan murni bisnis dan geopolitik untuk pipa ini.  Sementara itu,  Pakistan dan India membutuhkan pasokan energi. Saat ini India mengalami kebangkitan ekonomi, dan tentunya membutuhkan pasokan energi yang tak sedikit.

Musharraf and Rice

Rencana besar ini ternyata membuat Gedung Putih tak suka. Pada tahun 2005-2006, Condolezza Rice sempat melakukan negoisasi dengan sekutu dekatnya (Pakistan dan India) dan menawarkan alternatif saat kunjungannya ke Asia, agar rencana pembangunan pipa gas tak berjalan.

Pembangunan pipa gas tersebut tentu membuat Washington khawatir.  Washington khawatir atas manfaat geopolitik ekonomi yang dipetik oleh Iran, dan khawatir pembangunan pipa tersebut akan berlanjut ke wilayah China. Seperti diketahui, China sebagai naga Asia sedang bangkit; pertumbuhan ekonomi yang melonjak tentu membutuhkan pasokan energi. Washington melihat jelas bahwa China juga berkepentingan dengan pembangunan pipa tersebut.

Yang jelas, tahun ini (2008) Washington sempat merasa berang dan kecolongan dengan lobby Musharraf dengan China. Apalagi jika lobby mengenai pembangunan pipa tersebut. Di dalam pengembangan proyek besar tersebut tentu sangat membutuhkan dana/invetasi besar; China tentu sangat berminat.

Walaupun Washington berang, rencana tetap berjalan. Tapi, kali ini dengan India menunda keinginannya; karena desakan Washington. Rencananya, pembangunan ini akan tetap dilanjutkan dan selesai pada tahun 2011-an.

Bhutto, Pakistan, AS, dan China

Melihat uraian di atas, Benazir Bhutto sepertinya tidak memperhitungkan kondisi “permainan” geopolitik kawasan yang sedang berkembang.  Kepentingan nasional Pakistan (jelas ada), Iran, dan China telah jelas masuk di Pakistan. Bhutto sepertinya menjebloskan dirinya sendiri dan didorong AS untuk masuk jurang kematian.

Apalagi kedatangan Bhutto dengan jelas disponsori oleh AS mengatasnamakan “demi demokrasi.” AS seperti terlihat dengan jelas memanfaatkan Bhutto untuk pengamanan kepentingan geopolitiknya. Banyak pihak pun tidak nyaman melihat kedatangan Bhutto di Pakistan. Sebut saja: di internal Pakistan sendiri, Iran, dan China. Akhirnya, permainan pun dimulai, dengan nyawa manusia menjadi tumbalnya. AS juga terlibat.

Kematian Bhutto memang menyedihkan. Tapi, lebih menyedihkan jika terdapat banyak kepentingan yang menyebabkan Bhutto tewas.*****

Tulisan lain terkait:

Beberapa Referensi:

Advertisements

December 25, 2007

FACTBOX-Why oil prices are near a record high

FACTBOX-Why oil prices are near a record high

Sun Jul 22, 2007 11:22PM EDT

(Reuters) – Real and threatened disruptions to crude oil supplies, constraints at refineries in consuming countries, resilient global fuel demand and a flow of investor money into oil and other commodities have pushed prices higher.

FUNDS

Investment flows from pension and hedge funds into commodities including oil have resumed in recent months after a hiatus earlier in the year due to concerns about how the global economy was moving.

Investors are also increasing bets that prices will rise.

Speculators in the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil market boosted net long positions to a record high in the week to July 10, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said.

Speculative trading in energy markets has surged in recent years as investors sought to beat returns in other markets such as equities and bonds

LESS OPEC OIL

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, source of more than a third of the world’s oil, is pumping less than in 2006 after agreeing to remove barrels from the market.

OPEC agreed to curb supply by 1.7 million bpd, or about 6 percent, last year in two steps. The second stage took effect from February 1.

Members have made about 1 million bpd of the pledged reduction, according to Reuters estimates. The exporter group is next scheduled to meet in September to decide production policy.

Consumer nations have called on OPEC to pump more crude to help ease prices, but the group’s oil ministers insist crude supplies are adequate.

DEMAND

While previous price spikes have been triggered by supply disruptions, demand from nations such as China and the United States is a main driver of the current rally.

Global demand growth has slowed after a surge in 2004, but it is still rising and higher prices have so far had a very limited effect on economic growth.

Analysts say the world is coping well with high nominal prices because adjusted for exchange rates and inflation, they are lower than during previous price spikes and some economies have become less energy intensive.

NIGERIA

Supply of crude from Nigeria, the world’s eighth-largest oil exporter, has been cut since February 2006 because of militant attacks on the country’s oil industry.

Oil companies have detailed about 547,000 barrels per day of shut Nigerian production due to militant attacks and sabotage. The amount represents about 18 percent of the West African country’s output capacity of around 3 million bpd.

REFINERY BOTTLENECKS

Adding to concern about tight supply of unrefined crude is a global shortage of refining capacity.

Refiners in the United States, the world’s top gas guzzler, have struggled with unexpected outages this year which drained inventories ahead of the summer, when motor fuel demand peaks.

U.S. gasoline inventories stand at 203.3 million barrels, 9.5 million below a year ago, according to government data. Demand is still growing, despite higher prices.

Refining capacity is already tight after years of underinvestment.

The U.S. oil industry took a battering in 2005’s Atlantic hurricane season. Some forecasters expect an active storm season this year.

IRAN

Oil consumers are concerned about supply disruption from Iran, the world’s fourth-biggest exporter, which is locked in a dispute with the West over its nuclear program.

Western governments suspect Iran is using its civilian nuclear program as a cover to develop nuclear weapons. Iran denies this, saying it wants nuclear power to make electricity.

IRAQ

Iraq is struggling to get its oil industry back on its feet. Exports are stagnating at around 1.5 million bpd, compared with 1.7 million bpd or more under Saddam Hussein.

Decades of wars, sanctions and underinvestment have left Iraq struggling to pump its oil out of the ground and on to world markets. Production has failed to meet optimistic projections by oil ministry officials.

Iraq is also unable to ship crude regularly from its northern fields for export from the Turkish port of Ceyhan because of attacks on the pipeline to Turkey.

Oil falls ahead of OPEC meeting

Mon Sep 10, 2007 8:15AM EDT

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil slid on Monday ahead of an OPEC meeting in Vienna that is due to set production levels for peak winter demand.

Most members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries seem happy with OPEC’s current output, but Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest exporter, has yet to signal its views.

“There is a little bit of talk that the Saudis may be influenced to push for 0.5 million bpd increase,” said Rob Laughlin, senior broker at MF Global.

U.S. light crude fell 72 cents to $75.98 a barrel by 8:10 a.m. EDT, after climbing 40 cents on Friday. London Brent crude shed 85 cents to $74.22 a barrel.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi has so far declined to make any comment.

He has not responded to a report by Washington-based consultancy PFC Energy saying Saudi Arabian sources signaled OPEC may need to boost output by up to 1 million barrels per day (bpd).

Any increase by OPEC would reverse some of the output cuts of 1.7 million bpd — roughly six percent of supplies — put in place since October 2006.

An increase might help to ease upward pressure on oil prices, which are close to a record high of $78.77 a barrel set on August1.

Industrialized consumer nations have argued that crude oil stocks will shrink rapidly by January next year if OPEC does not increase output.

“Near-record spot prices, steep inventory draws and economic uncertainty would all be good reasons for OPEC to reverse its October 2006 production cuts at its meeting on September 11,” said Lehman Brothers in a research note. “But few observers, us included, believe that it will do so.”

Worries over shrinking crude oil supplies are clouded by doubts over the economic health of top consumer, the United States.

There are concerns that turmoil in the world financial markets, triggered by problems in the U.S. mortgage sector, could tip the United States into recession and hit oil demand.

Payrolls in the United States shrank unexpectedly for the first time in four years last month, data showed on Friday, prompting concerns that credit market turmoil may become a drag on economic growth.

Saudi Arabia told its customers in Asia it would keep its crude oil supplies steady for October from September levels, industry sources in Japan and South Korea said on Monday.

More than half of Saudi Arabia’s crude heads to Asia.

The kingdom, key to any OPEC decision, pumped 8.65 million bpd of the cartel’s total August production of 30.37 million bpd, Reuters data shows. It also has the bulk of OPEC’s spare production capacity.

May 11, 2007

CONFIDENTIAL DOCUMENT ON IRAQ OIL LOBBYING

http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/oil/2006/0714confidential.htm

Confidential Document on Iraq Oil Lobbying

Commentary by James Paul
Global Policy Forum
July 14, 2006

The governments of the Coalition that overthrew Saddam Hussein announced that they acted because of weapons of mass destruction, terrorist threats, and a desire to install democracy in Iraq. They insisted that their actions had nothing whatsoever to do with oil. A confidential document (klik aja) has now come to light that helps us gain perspective on these official arguments. The document reveals that, in private, the Coalition governments were extremely interested in oil and that intense negotiations were going on, even while the initial fighting was still under way, to parcel out Iraq’s major oil fields. The main decisions were being taken in Washington. Key players – in the UK, Australia, France and elsewhere – saw Washington as the ultimate arbiter of Iraq’s oil resources.

(more…)

CHENEY ENERGY TASK FORCE DOCUMENTS FEATURE MAP OF IRAQI OILFIELDS

Cheney had Iraq in sights two years ago

(http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2003/07/22/wcheny22.xml)

By Simon English in New York

Last Updated: 12:26am BST 22/07/2003

 

 

Documents released under America’s Freedom of Information Act reveal that an energy task force led by vice-president Dick Cheney was examining Iraq’s oil assets two years before the latest war began.

The papers were obtained after a long battle with the White House by Judicial Watch, a conservative legal charity that opposes government secrecy and which is suing for the dealings of the task force to be made public.

 
Dick Cheney was examining Iraq’s oil assets two years before the latest war began

The emergence of the documents could fuel claims that America’s war in Iraq had as much to do with oil as national security. It also indicates that the Bush administration is beginning to lose the battle to keep its internal workings secret.

The 16 pages, dated March 2001, show maps of Iraq oil fields, pipelines, refineries and terminals. A document titled Foreign Suitors for Iraqi Oilfield Contracts is also included, listing which countries were keen to do business with Saddam’s regime.

Judicial Watch requested the papers two years ago as part of its investigation into links between the Bush administration and senior energy executives including Enron’s former chairman Ken Lay.

Mr Cheney has fought the release of the documents at every stage. A court ordered two weeks ago that at least some of the task force’s working papers should be made public.

 

Judicial Watch president Tom Fitton said: “People will draw their own conclusions about the documents, but that is what an open society is about. Given the delay in their release, the Bush administration clearly did not want them to come out.”

A spokesman for Mr Cheney did not return calls yesterday. The US Commerce Department said in a statement: “It is the responsibility of the Commerce Department to serve as a commercial liaison for US companies doing business around the world, including those that develop and utilise energy resources. The Energy Task Force evaluated regions of the world that are vital to global energy supply.”

Judicial Watch isn’t claiming that the documents are proof of any particular intent but say they should be open to public scrutiny.

Mr Fitton said: “Opponents of the war will point to the documents as evidence that the Bush administration was after Iraqi oil. Supporters will say the energy task force would have been remiss if it did not take Iraq’s oil into account.”

Nevertheless, the documents represent a surprising development. Until now it had been assumed that the US government was stonewalling over the energy task force papers because they would show the extent to which major party benefactors, including Enron, effectively wrote national energy policy.

Judicial Watch and other watchdogs are now curious what else may be revealed. A court ordered the government to comply with the Freedom of Information Act and give up these documents more than a year ago. Judicial Watch said it could not explain why the papers were suddenly released. A government spokesman declined to elaborate.

Maps of oil fields and pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and a list of energy development projects in those two countries are also included.

Mr Cheney argues that his consultations with the energy industry should be private so that all parties can speak freely. A US court recently described this invoking of executive privilege “extraordinary” and “drastic”.

================================================================

 

Jul 17, 2003 Contact: Press Office
202-646-5188

CHENEY ENERGY TASK FORCE DOCUMENTS FEATURE MAP OF IRAQI OILFIELDS

Commerce & State Department Reports to Task Force Detail Oilfield & Gas Projects, Contracts & Exploration

Saudi Arabian & UAE Oil Facilities Profiled As Well

(Washington, DC) Judicial Watch, the public interest group that investigates and prosecutes government corruption and abuse, said today that documents turned over by the Commerce Department, under court order as a result of Judicial Watch’s Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit concerning the activities of the Cheney Energy Task Force, contain a map of Iraqi oilfields, pipelines, refineries and terminals, as well as 2 charts detailing Iraqi oil and gas projects, and “Foreign Suitors for Iraqi Oilfield Contracts.” The documents, which are dated March 2001, are available on the Internet at: http://www.JudicialWatch.org.

DOWNLOAD!!: cheney-energy-task-force-documents-feature-map-of-iraqi-oilfields.doc

Artikel lain yang terkait (klik aja):

May 10, 2007

ALL ABOUT OIL IN SOMALIA!

Just click links below:

Stratigraphy and Petroleum Prospects of Northern Somalia

The Oil Factor in Somalia

Oil Hopes Hinge on North Somalia

Somaliland: Hopes and hype on the new frontier

Hydrocarbon potential of Somaliland (download file PDF)

May 1, 2007

BUSH AND CHENEY, WHO AVOIDED THE VIETNAM WAR, ARE PREPARING FOR A NEW U.S. MILITARY PRESENCE IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: AFTER THE MIDDLE EAST DISASTER, GET READY FOR INDOCHINA WAR II

(http://www.inteldaily.com/?c=164&a=1274)

Fri, 02 Mar 2007 11:39:00 GMT
Wayne Madsen Report
While in Southeast Asia, this editor looked into rumors that the Bush/Cheney administration has initiated a major military move into Southeast Asia to secure for itself large oil deposits discovered in the waters of the Gulf of Thailand. The U.S. military push into the region is centered on the Cambodian coast, particularly around Sihanoukville.

While in Southeast Asia, this editor looked into rumors that the Bush/Cheney administration has initiated a major military move into Southeast Asia to secure for itself large oil deposits discovered in the waters of the Gulf of Thailand. The U.S. military push into the region is centered on the Cambodian coast, particularly around Sihanoukville.

April 27, 2007

HYDROCARBON POTENTIAL OF SOMALILAND

“The available well, seismic, and outcrop data show that the
potential for commercial accumulations of hydrocarbons in
Somaliland is good….”

DOWNLOAD FILE:

Hydrocarbon potential of Somaliland (download file PDF)

Artikel lain yang terkait (klik aja):

April 25, 2007

SOMALILAND: HOPES AND HYPE ON THE FRONTIER

Copyright (c) 1993 , EMA Business Information.
Reprinted by permission.

Middle East Economic Digest, 2 April 1993, pp.20-21.

Somaliland: Hopes and hype on the new frontier

MARIA KIELMAS

Geologists have speculating about the possibility of oil in Somalia since the last century, but it took the US military Operation Restore Hope to bring this possibility to popular attention. The widespread notion that US troops are sent to Somalia to protect the interests of US oil companies, and their supposed huge oil finds, has been treated with amused derision in oil industry circles. But US military presence which aims to stabilise events in a region increasingly regarded as the backyard of its regional ally, Saudi Arabia, has not been discounted . Over the past l0 years most of the oil industry interest has focused on areas in the north, today the self-declared Republic of Somaliland, which troops have avoided. Any future oil exploration here will depend largely on the international community's recognition of the aspirations of the breakaway state.

Oil seeps were first identified by Italian and British geologists who surveyed the area during the colonial era. These predicted the presence of a sizable oil field just south of Berbera. But it took until the 1960s for the first wells to be drilled here. Three wells known as the Daga Shabell series, regisrered oil shows, but there was no real discovery . There were further small gas discoveries along the east coast and just offshore of Socotra, but nothing of commercial proportions.

STRATIGRAPHY AND PETROLEUM PROSPECT OF NORTHERN SOMALIA

Stratigraphy and Petroleum Prospects of Northern Somalia

SALAD HERSI, O., Quebec Geoscience Center, Ste-Foy, QC; and HILOWLE MOHAMED, A., Department of Earth Sciences, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON

The sedimentary cover of Northern Somalia includes post-Triassic continental and marine strata which accumulated in basins related to the disintegration of the Gondwanaland. Among these, the Berbera and Ahl Mado basins are the most important basins stratigraphically and hydrocarbon potential. Sedimentation in both basins begins with a Jurassic continental sandstone (Adigrat Formation) overlain by interbedded units of shallow marine limestones and shales (Bihendula sequence) in the Berbera Basin, and limestone-dominated strata with minor shale and sandstone interbeds (Ahl Mado Group) in the Ahl Mado Basin. The Cretaceous section, unconformable with the Jurassic sequence, is mainly continental (Yesomma Sandstone) in the Berbera Basin, but becomes shallow-marine, sandy to pure limestone with subordinate sandstone and shale (Tisje Formation) in the Ahl Mado Basin. By the end of the Cretaceous Period, a westward marine transgression permitted shallow-marine, Paleocene – lower Eocene limestone (Auradu Formation) deposition throughout northern Somalia. This is succeeded by thick anhydrite strata (Taleh Formation) overlain by Middle to Late Eocene shallow-marine limestone (Karkar Formation). The later is the youngest stratigraphic unit straddling the Gulf of Aden. Younger strata of syn- and post-rifting, continental to shallow-marine origin are confined in discrete basins along the coast of the gulf.

Based on published and unpublished data, the geology of these basins proves that oil and gas have been generated with favorable reservoirs, as well as structural and stratigraphic traps. Moreover, continuation of these basins across the gulf, matching the hydrocarbon-producing Marib-Hajar and Say’un-Al Masila basins of Yemen, raises the hydrocarbon prospect of northern Somalia.

ABSTRACTS – ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN PETROLEUM GEOLOGISTS (AAPG) EASTERN SECTION 2000 MEETING

http://www.ogsrlibrary.com/aapg/abstracts.htm

Artikel lain yang terkait (klik aja):

April 21, 2007

PENGORBANAN AS DEMI MINYAK

The costs of maintaining a presence in the Persian Gulf are too real (klik aja) 

energy-security-us.jpg

(KLIK UNTUK PERBESAR ATAU DOWNLOAD)

 

 

Artikel lain yang terkait (klik aja):

 

Next Page »

Blog at WordPress.com.