Geopolitik Energi

December 25, 2007

FACTBOX-Why oil prices are near a record high

FACTBOX-Why oil prices are near a record high

Sun Jul 22, 2007 11:22PM EDT

(Reuters) – Real and threatened disruptions to crude oil supplies, constraints at refineries in consuming countries, resilient global fuel demand and a flow of investor money into oil and other commodities have pushed prices higher.

FUNDS

Investment flows from pension and hedge funds into commodities including oil have resumed in recent months after a hiatus earlier in the year due to concerns about how the global economy was moving.

Investors are also increasing bets that prices will rise.

Speculators in the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil market boosted net long positions to a record high in the week to July 10, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said.

Speculative trading in energy markets has surged in recent years as investors sought to beat returns in other markets such as equities and bonds

LESS OPEC OIL

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, source of more than a third of the world’s oil, is pumping less than in 2006 after agreeing to remove barrels from the market.

OPEC agreed to curb supply by 1.7 million bpd, or about 6 percent, last year in two steps. The second stage took effect from February 1.

Members have made about 1 million bpd of the pledged reduction, according to Reuters estimates. The exporter group is next scheduled to meet in September to decide production policy.

Consumer nations have called on OPEC to pump more crude to help ease prices, but the group’s oil ministers insist crude supplies are adequate.

DEMAND

While previous price spikes have been triggered by supply disruptions, demand from nations such as China and the United States is a main driver of the current rally.

Global demand growth has slowed after a surge in 2004, but it is still rising and higher prices have so far had a very limited effect on economic growth.

Analysts say the world is coping well with high nominal prices because adjusted for exchange rates and inflation, they are lower than during previous price spikes and some economies have become less energy intensive.

NIGERIA

Supply of crude from Nigeria, the world’s eighth-largest oil exporter, has been cut since February 2006 because of militant attacks on the country’s oil industry.

Oil companies have detailed about 547,000 barrels per day of shut Nigerian production due to militant attacks and sabotage. The amount represents about 18 percent of the West African country’s output capacity of around 3 million bpd.

REFINERY BOTTLENECKS

Adding to concern about tight supply of unrefined crude is a global shortage of refining capacity.

Refiners in the United States, the world’s top gas guzzler, have struggled with unexpected outages this year which drained inventories ahead of the summer, when motor fuel demand peaks.

U.S. gasoline inventories stand at 203.3 million barrels, 9.5 million below a year ago, according to government data. Demand is still growing, despite higher prices.

Refining capacity is already tight after years of underinvestment.

The U.S. oil industry took a battering in 2005’s Atlantic hurricane season. Some forecasters expect an active storm season this year.

IRAN

Oil consumers are concerned about supply disruption from Iran, the world’s fourth-biggest exporter, which is locked in a dispute with the West over its nuclear program.

Western governments suspect Iran is using its civilian nuclear program as a cover to develop nuclear weapons. Iran denies this, saying it wants nuclear power to make electricity.

IRAQ

Iraq is struggling to get its oil industry back on its feet. Exports are stagnating at around 1.5 million bpd, compared with 1.7 million bpd or more under Saddam Hussein.

Decades of wars, sanctions and underinvestment have left Iraq struggling to pump its oil out of the ground and on to world markets. Production has failed to meet optimistic projections by oil ministry officials.

Iraq is also unable to ship crude regularly from its northern fields for export from the Turkish port of Ceyhan because of attacks on the pipeline to Turkey.

Oil falls ahead of OPEC meeting

Mon Sep 10, 2007 8:15AM EDT

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil slid on Monday ahead of an OPEC meeting in Vienna that is due to set production levels for peak winter demand.

Most members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries seem happy with OPEC’s current output, but Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest exporter, has yet to signal its views.

“There is a little bit of talk that the Saudis may be influenced to push for 0.5 million bpd increase,” said Rob Laughlin, senior broker at MF Global.

U.S. light crude fell 72 cents to $75.98 a barrel by 8:10 a.m. EDT, after climbing 40 cents on Friday. London Brent crude shed 85 cents to $74.22 a barrel.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi has so far declined to make any comment.

He has not responded to a report by Washington-based consultancy PFC Energy saying Saudi Arabian sources signaled OPEC may need to boost output by up to 1 million barrels per day (bpd).

Any increase by OPEC would reverse some of the output cuts of 1.7 million bpd — roughly six percent of supplies — put in place since October 2006.

An increase might help to ease upward pressure on oil prices, which are close to a record high of $78.77 a barrel set on August1.

Industrialized consumer nations have argued that crude oil stocks will shrink rapidly by January next year if OPEC does not increase output.

“Near-record spot prices, steep inventory draws and economic uncertainty would all be good reasons for OPEC to reverse its October 2006 production cuts at its meeting on September 11,” said Lehman Brothers in a research note. “But few observers, us included, believe that it will do so.”

Worries over shrinking crude oil supplies are clouded by doubts over the economic health of top consumer, the United States.

There are concerns that turmoil in the world financial markets, triggered by problems in the U.S. mortgage sector, could tip the United States into recession and hit oil demand.

Payrolls in the United States shrank unexpectedly for the first time in four years last month, data showed on Friday, prompting concerns that credit market turmoil may become a drag on economic growth.

Saudi Arabia told its customers in Asia it would keep its crude oil supplies steady for October from September levels, industry sources in Japan and South Korea said on Monday.

More than half of Saudi Arabia’s crude heads to Asia.

The kingdom, key to any OPEC decision, pumped 8.65 million bpd of the cartel’s total August production of 30.37 million bpd, Reuters data shows. It also has the bulk of OPEC’s spare production capacity.

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October 16, 2007

Harga Minyak Melonjak, Melampaui 85 Dollar AS

Filed under: harga minyak,minyak — merdeka1978 @ 8:45 am
Tags: , , , , , , ,

http://www.kompas.com/kompas-cetak/0710/16/ekonomi/3918366.htm

Bahan Bakar
Harga Minyak Melonjak, Melampaui 85 Dollar AS

 

London, Senin – Harga minyak mentah dunia, Senin (15/10) pagi, melonjak hingga mencapai rekor tertinggi 85,19 dollar AS per barrel di bursa New York, Amerika Serikat. Harga minyak jenis Brent di bursa London juga mencetak rekor, yakni 81,93 dollar AS per barrel.

Kondisi ini karena memuncaknya ketegangan antara Turki dan suku Kurdi di Irak. Sejumlah kalangan mengkhawatirkan kenaikan harga itu akan memengaruhi kebijakan Irak, salah satu produsen minyak mentah, untuk memperketat suplai minyak.

Organisasi Negara Pengekspor Minyak (OPEC) tetap yakin bahwa kenaikan harga minyak dunia tak akan memengaruhi permintaan minyak dunia. OPEC tetap memperkirakan kenaikan 1,5 persen permintaan minyak dunia tahun ini atau rata-rata 1,3 juta barrel per hari.

Menurut OPEC, permintaan minyak dunia selama triwulan ketiga tahun ini cenderung menurun. Namun, akan terjadi kenaikan permintaan minyak dunia hingga 1,8 juta barrel per hari pada triwulan keempat. Kenaikan permintaan minyak dunia pada triwulan keempat itu menyusul meningkatnya kebutuhan minyak sebagai dampak musim dingin di belahan bumi utara. Kebutuhan minyak yang meningkat di antaranya untuk bahan bakar dan pemanas.

Sementara itu, pada tahun 2008 kenaikan permintaan minyak diperkirakan juga mencapai rata-rata 1,3 juta barrel per hari. “Kenaikan permintaan minyak itu tidak akan bergeser dari perkiraan sebelumnya,” kata OPEC, seperti dikutip AFP.

Meski demikian, ketidakpastian minyak dunia diperkirakan akan semakin besar.

“Di luar persoalan geopolitik di beberapa negara, berlangsungnya musim dingin dan berlanjutnya kemunduran ekonomi Amerika Serikat dan ekonomi dunia pada 2008 akan memberi pengaruh besar terhadap kondisi minyak dunia,” kata sumber OPEC, seperti dikutip AFP.

Spekulasi

Ulah spekulan yang muncul seiring melemahnya nilai kurs dollar AS juga akan memengaruhi pasar minyak mentah dunia. Ulah spekulan akan mendorong harga minyak premium dan menambah ketidakpastian pasar.

OPEC menambahkan, menguatnya harga minyak juga dipengaruhi oleh kekhawatiran terhadap potensi kerusakan instalasi minyak di Teluk Meksiko akibat badai topan bulan September.

Negara-negara OPEC berencana untuk mengadakan pertemuan di Abu Dhabi awal Desember mendatang untuk mengkaji kembali perkembangan kondisi minyak terakhir serta memastikan keamanan pasokan minyak dunia selama berlangsungnya musim dingin. (AFP/LKT)

September 8, 2007

ORANG GILA DI ACARA APEC!! (new!)

Filed under: Uncategorized — merdeka1978 @ 9:49 pm
Tags: , , , ,
Sabtu, 08 September 2007
 
 
 

“Pesta” ASEAN di Texas
Lidah Bush Terpeleset, APEC Disebutnya OPEC

 

Sydney, Jumat – Presiden AS George W Bush, Jumat (7/9), mengundang pemimpin ASEAN ke Crawford, Texas, tempat peristirahatan Bush. Di sana, Bush menjamu pemimpin ASEAN untuk merayakan 40 tahun berdirinya ASEAN. Kemungkinan besar pemimpin Myanmar Than Swe tidak dikehendaki kehadirannya.

Dua hari lalu Bush mengecam junta militer Myanmar sebagai pemimpin yang tidak bisa dimaafkan karena tindakan brutal terhadap warga Myanmar. Bush menyampaikan undangan itu kepada tujuh pemimpin ASEAN saat makan siang di Sydney.

Presiden Filipina Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo turut hadir pada acara makan siang itu. Perayaan di Texas itu dilakukan karena Bush tidak jadi hadir di Singapura, yang sempat direncanakan, untuk merayakan 40 tahun ASEAN sebagai pertanda kedekatan hubungan AS dengan ASEAN.

“Dia (Bush) mengundang kita ke Texas,” kata Arroyo. “Kita akan memenuhi undang itu demi kenyamanan ASEAN,” kata Arroyo, yang tidak menjelaskan apa yang ia maksudkan sebagai kenyamanan ASEAN itu.

Perayaan 40 tahun ASEAN pada 8 Agustus lalu dilakukan di Jakarta. Sepanjang kunjungan Bush ke Indonesia, ia selalu pulang hari dan tidak menginap. Anggota ASEAN yang juga menjadi anggota APEC adalah Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Filipina, Singapura, Thailand, dan Vietnam. Kamboja, Laos, dan Myanmar bukan anggota APEC.

(more…)

April 12, 2007

MINYAK DAN UMAT ISLAM

Bayangkan, bagaimana rasanya jika kita hidup tanpa energi? Anda membaca sebuah artikel telah tertata rapi dalam sebuah surat kabar. Tapi, tahukah Anda bagaimana surat kabar bisa tercetak? Proses cetak surat kabar membutuhkan daya listrik untuk menggerakkan mesin-mesin pencetak. Daya listrik itu sendiri dihasilkan dari sebuah proses energi dari pembangkit listrik. Sedangkan pembangkit listrik itu sendiri membutuhkan energy resources. Tercatat di tahun 2004, 45,5 persen kapasitas pembangkit listrik di Indonesia membutuhkan bahan bakar minyak sebagai energy resource untuk menghasilkan daya listrik.

 

Itu masih cerita bagaimana daya listrik dibutuhkan untuk sebuah industri. Bagaimana dengan rumah Anda? Itu sebagian cerita soal listrik.

 

Lalu, bagaimana juga dengan alat transportasi? Alat transportasi, baik milik sipil dan militer, membutuhkan sumber energi juga untuk bergerak. Di dunia, sumber energi yang sangat dibutuhkan untuk menggerakkan alat transportasi adalah minyak bumi. Tak terbayang, bagaimana jika terdapat sebuah negara memiliki pesawat tempur dan kapal perang canggih tapi hanya menjadi sebuah hiasan, dikarenakan pasokan BBM-nya tidak tersedia aman? Tak terbayang pula, jika saat ini, alat transportasi di semua penjuru dunia benar-benar lepas dari minyak bumi. Bisa jadi, kita kembali lagi menunggang kuda dan keledai. Maukah kita?

April 11, 2007

KENAPA AS INCAR IRAN?

Selepas invansi Amerika Serikat (AS) ke Irak pada Maret 2003, nafsu AS ternyata masih tak bisa dibendung untuk mencoba “invansi” Iran lewat isu yang sama: nuklir. Iran dikhawatirkan akan memproduksi senjata pemusnah massal (Weapon Mass Destruction / WMD) melalui senjata nuklir. Padahal Iran telah mengklaim tenaga nuklir hanya digunakan sebagai bahan pembangkit listrik; demi perdamaian. Padahal, pada tahun 1974, Iran di bawah Shah Reza Pahlevi, AS men-support pembangunan reaktor nuklir Bushehr. Kali ini, isu ancaman senjata nuklir Iran kembali digunakan AS. Sungguh kampungan!

carnegiegraph2.gif

(Klik untuk mempebesar/download)

Sumber: The Washington Post

Dulu, isu senjata nuklir pernah berhasil digunakan oleh AS ke Irak. AS menginvansi Irak, dunia pun seakan tak bisa berbuat banyak; termasuk Indonesia. Di AS sendiri, isu senjata nuklir dianggap sebagai “kebohongan” terhadap publik AS. Sebuah media massa AS, The Washington Post sempat mempertanyakan alasan serangan AS ke Irak. Sandi Invasi AS ke Irak bernama Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) malah diplesetkan publik AS menjadi Operation Iraqi Liberation (OIL !).

Kali ini, Resolusi DK PBB diputuskan. Aneh tapi nyata, Indonesia mendukung resolusi dengan alasan mendukung penciptaan kawasan bebas senjata nuklir di Timur Tengah. Secara tak sadar, itu sebuah resolusi yang secara tidak langsung mendukung AS. AS dan sekutunya sangat berkepentingan atas wilayah Timur Tengah, demi kepentingan energy security-nya. Kepentingan energy security tersebut demi terjaganya dominasi AS di dunia. Jika begitu, apa yang diperoleh Indonesia atas keluarnya Resolusi tersebut? Tidak ada? Bisa jadi, Indonesia ditekan AS dikarenakan lemahnya kepemimpinan nasional. Sungguh memalukan.

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