Geopolitik Energi

December 25, 2007

FACTBOX-Why oil prices are near a record high

FACTBOX-Why oil prices are near a record high

Sun Jul 22, 2007 11:22PM EDT

(Reuters) – Real and threatened disruptions to crude oil supplies, constraints at refineries in consuming countries, resilient global fuel demand and a flow of investor money into oil and other commodities have pushed prices higher.

FUNDS

Investment flows from pension and hedge funds into commodities including oil have resumed in recent months after a hiatus earlier in the year due to concerns about how the global economy was moving.

Investors are also increasing bets that prices will rise.

Speculators in the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil market boosted net long positions to a record high in the week to July 10, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said.

Speculative trading in energy markets has surged in recent years as investors sought to beat returns in other markets such as equities and bonds

LESS OPEC OIL

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, source of more than a third of the world’s oil, is pumping less than in 2006 after agreeing to remove barrels from the market.

OPEC agreed to curb supply by 1.7 million bpd, or about 6 percent, last year in two steps. The second stage took effect from February 1.

Members have made about 1 million bpd of the pledged reduction, according to Reuters estimates. The exporter group is next scheduled to meet in September to decide production policy.

Consumer nations have called on OPEC to pump more crude to help ease prices, but the group’s oil ministers insist crude supplies are adequate.

DEMAND

While previous price spikes have been triggered by supply disruptions, demand from nations such as China and the United States is a main driver of the current rally.

Global demand growth has slowed after a surge in 2004, but it is still rising and higher prices have so far had a very limited effect on economic growth.

Analysts say the world is coping well with high nominal prices because adjusted for exchange rates and inflation, they are lower than during previous price spikes and some economies have become less energy intensive.

NIGERIA

Supply of crude from Nigeria, the world’s eighth-largest oil exporter, has been cut since February 2006 because of militant attacks on the country’s oil industry.

Oil companies have detailed about 547,000 barrels per day of shut Nigerian production due to militant attacks and sabotage. The amount represents about 18 percent of the West African country’s output capacity of around 3 million bpd.

REFINERY BOTTLENECKS

Adding to concern about tight supply of unrefined crude is a global shortage of refining capacity.

Refiners in the United States, the world’s top gas guzzler, have struggled with unexpected outages this year which drained inventories ahead of the summer, when motor fuel demand peaks.

U.S. gasoline inventories stand at 203.3 million barrels, 9.5 million below a year ago, according to government data. Demand is still growing, despite higher prices.

Refining capacity is already tight after years of underinvestment.

The U.S. oil industry took a battering in 2005’s Atlantic hurricane season. Some forecasters expect an active storm season this year.

IRAN

Oil consumers are concerned about supply disruption from Iran, the world’s fourth-biggest exporter, which is locked in a dispute with the West over its nuclear program.

Western governments suspect Iran is using its civilian nuclear program as a cover to develop nuclear weapons. Iran denies this, saying it wants nuclear power to make electricity.

IRAQ

Iraq is struggling to get its oil industry back on its feet. Exports are stagnating at around 1.5 million bpd, compared with 1.7 million bpd or more under Saddam Hussein.

Decades of wars, sanctions and underinvestment have left Iraq struggling to pump its oil out of the ground and on to world markets. Production has failed to meet optimistic projections by oil ministry officials.

Iraq is also unable to ship crude regularly from its northern fields for export from the Turkish port of Ceyhan because of attacks on the pipeline to Turkey.

Oil falls ahead of OPEC meeting

Mon Sep 10, 2007 8:15AM EDT

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil slid on Monday ahead of an OPEC meeting in Vienna that is due to set production levels for peak winter demand.

Most members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries seem happy with OPEC’s current output, but Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest exporter, has yet to signal its views.

“There is a little bit of talk that the Saudis may be influenced to push for 0.5 million bpd increase,” said Rob Laughlin, senior broker at MF Global.

U.S. light crude fell 72 cents to $75.98 a barrel by 8:10 a.m. EDT, after climbing 40 cents on Friday. London Brent crude shed 85 cents to $74.22 a barrel.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi has so far declined to make any comment.

He has not responded to a report by Washington-based consultancy PFC Energy saying Saudi Arabian sources signaled OPEC may need to boost output by up to 1 million barrels per day (bpd).

Any increase by OPEC would reverse some of the output cuts of 1.7 million bpd — roughly six percent of supplies — put in place since October 2006.

An increase might help to ease upward pressure on oil prices, which are close to a record high of $78.77 a barrel set on August1.

Industrialized consumer nations have argued that crude oil stocks will shrink rapidly by January next year if OPEC does not increase output.

“Near-record spot prices, steep inventory draws and economic uncertainty would all be good reasons for OPEC to reverse its October 2006 production cuts at its meeting on September 11,” said Lehman Brothers in a research note. “But few observers, us included, believe that it will do so.”

Worries over shrinking crude oil supplies are clouded by doubts over the economic health of top consumer, the United States.

There are concerns that turmoil in the world financial markets, triggered by problems in the U.S. mortgage sector, could tip the United States into recession and hit oil demand.

Payrolls in the United States shrank unexpectedly for the first time in four years last month, data showed on Friday, prompting concerns that credit market turmoil may become a drag on economic growth.

Saudi Arabia told its customers in Asia it would keep its crude oil supplies steady for October from September levels, industry sources in Japan and South Korea said on Monday.

More than half of Saudi Arabia’s crude heads to Asia.

The kingdom, key to any OPEC decision, pumped 8.65 million bpd of the cartel’s total August production of 30.37 million bpd, Reuters data shows. It also has the bulk of OPEC’s spare production capacity.

October 16, 2007

Harga Minyak Melonjak, Melampaui 85 Dollar AS

Filed under: harga minyak,minyak — merdeka1978 @ 8:45 am
Tags: , , , , , , ,

http://www.kompas.com/kompas-cetak/0710/16/ekonomi/3918366.htm

Bahan Bakar
Harga Minyak Melonjak, Melampaui 85 Dollar AS

 

London, Senin – Harga minyak mentah dunia, Senin (15/10) pagi, melonjak hingga mencapai rekor tertinggi 85,19 dollar AS per barrel di bursa New York, Amerika Serikat. Harga minyak jenis Brent di bursa London juga mencetak rekor, yakni 81,93 dollar AS per barrel.

Kondisi ini karena memuncaknya ketegangan antara Turki dan suku Kurdi di Irak. Sejumlah kalangan mengkhawatirkan kenaikan harga itu akan memengaruhi kebijakan Irak, salah satu produsen minyak mentah, untuk memperketat suplai minyak.

Organisasi Negara Pengekspor Minyak (OPEC) tetap yakin bahwa kenaikan harga minyak dunia tak akan memengaruhi permintaan minyak dunia. OPEC tetap memperkirakan kenaikan 1,5 persen permintaan minyak dunia tahun ini atau rata-rata 1,3 juta barrel per hari.

Menurut OPEC, permintaan minyak dunia selama triwulan ketiga tahun ini cenderung menurun. Namun, akan terjadi kenaikan permintaan minyak dunia hingga 1,8 juta barrel per hari pada triwulan keempat. Kenaikan permintaan minyak dunia pada triwulan keempat itu menyusul meningkatnya kebutuhan minyak sebagai dampak musim dingin di belahan bumi utara. Kebutuhan minyak yang meningkat di antaranya untuk bahan bakar dan pemanas.

Sementara itu, pada tahun 2008 kenaikan permintaan minyak diperkirakan juga mencapai rata-rata 1,3 juta barrel per hari. “Kenaikan permintaan minyak itu tidak akan bergeser dari perkiraan sebelumnya,” kata OPEC, seperti dikutip AFP.

Meski demikian, ketidakpastian minyak dunia diperkirakan akan semakin besar.

“Di luar persoalan geopolitik di beberapa negara, berlangsungnya musim dingin dan berlanjutnya kemunduran ekonomi Amerika Serikat dan ekonomi dunia pada 2008 akan memberi pengaruh besar terhadap kondisi minyak dunia,” kata sumber OPEC, seperti dikutip AFP.

Spekulasi

Ulah spekulan yang muncul seiring melemahnya nilai kurs dollar AS juga akan memengaruhi pasar minyak mentah dunia. Ulah spekulan akan mendorong harga minyak premium dan menambah ketidakpastian pasar.

OPEC menambahkan, menguatnya harga minyak juga dipengaruhi oleh kekhawatiran terhadap potensi kerusakan instalasi minyak di Teluk Meksiko akibat badai topan bulan September.

Negara-negara OPEC berencana untuk mengadakan pertemuan di Abu Dhabi awal Desember mendatang untuk mengkaji kembali perkembangan kondisi minyak terakhir serta memastikan keamanan pasokan minyak dunia selama berlangsungnya musim dingin. (AFP/LKT)

July 6, 2007

AUSTRALIA AKUI ADA FAKTOR MINYAK DI BALIK INVANSI IRAK

http://www.kompas.com/kompas-cetak/0707/06/ln/3663823.htm
Jumat, 06 Juli 2007
 
 
 
Australia Akui Ada Faktor Minyak di Balik Invasi Irak
Sudah 3.580 Tentara AS Tewas sejak 2003canberra, kamis – Untuk pertama kali, Pemerintah Australia mengakui bahwa minyak menjadi faktor kunci di balik dukungan Australia atas invasi Amerika Serikat ke Irak. Semula, Australia selalu menyangkal adanya kepentingan untuk mengamankan suplai minyak sebagai alasan invasi tersebut. Dalam sebuah tinjauan strategi pertahanan Australia yang dirilis Kamis (5/7) disebutkan bahwa “mengamankan sumber daya” di Timur Tengah adalah prioritas utama. “Strategi pertahanan yang kami umumkan hari ini menjabarkan banyak prioritas pertahanan dan keamanan Australia, dan keamanan sumber daya adalah salah satunya,” kata Menteri Pertahanan Australia Brendan Nelson. “Timur Tengah sendiri, tidak hanya Irak, tetapi juga seluruh kawasan Timur Tengah, adalah penyedia energi penting untuk dunia. Australia dan seluruh dunia perlu memikirkan apa yang akan terjadi jika ada penarikan pasukan lebih awal dari Irak,” ujarnya.

Pernyataan tersebut membuktikan argumen para penentang keras Perang Irak bahwa invasi AS pada tahun 2003 lebih didorong kepentingan minyak daripada alasan menemukan senjata pemusnah massal milik Saddam Hussein.

(more…)

June 20, 2007

HARGA MINYAK DAN FAKTOR GEOPOLITIK

Harga Minyak dan Faktor Geopolitik

Maizar Rahman, Ketua Dewan Gubernur OPEC

(maiza548@rad.net.id)

Membubungnya harga minyak di luar normal membuat prihatin menteri-menteri energi di berbagai negara yang berkumpul di Doha, Qatar, dalam rangka menghadiri Forum Energi Internasional ke-10, akhir April 2006 lalu. Mereka tidak menolak bahwa ketegangan geopolitik adalah asal-usul ketidakpastian situasi yang kemudian menjadi lahan subur bagi spekulasi perdagangan minyak.

Penawaran minyak di pasar berjangka kini sudah mencapai lebih dari sejuta lot. Berarti, “minyak kertas” yang ditawarkan sudah melebihi semiliar barel – lebih dari 12 kali perdagangan fisik minyak. Sedangkan di lapangan, tanki dan tanker-tanker penuh berisi minyak justru kekurangan pembeli. Lebih dari 20 dolar AS per barel kenaikan harga minyak sekarang ini hanya disebabkan oleh faktor geopolitik.

Para produsen minyak yang “sadar” tidak merasa nyaman dengan tingginya harga minyak pada tahun 2006. Kenapa? Karena kondisi tersebut di luar kemauan dan di luar kontrol mereka. Kalau negara maju masih mampu menyerap lonjakan harga minyak ini, maka bagi negara berkembang itu merupakan proses pemiskinan.

Harga minyak sangat fluktuatif terhadap konflik, bencana alam, atau faktor nonfundamental lain. Di sisi lain, negara-negara produsen minyak mengatakan bahwa kapasitas cadangan adalah “kemewahan”. Ibarat mobil simpanan yang hanya dipakai sekali-sekali, dan itu tidak ada dalam dalil perekonomian yang sehat.

Tersedianya cadangan OPEC di tahun 1990-an, umpamanya, lebih disebabkan oleh kapasitas yang telanjur dipakai terkait kompetisi produksi dengan non-OPEC. Karena itu, terjadi pengurangan produksi untuk memperbaiki harga yang waktu itu di bawah 20 dolar AS per barel.

Kapasitas produksi minyak mentah saat ini sebenarnya mampu melayani proses pasokan dan permintaan dunia yang seimbang. Malahan OPEC masih memiliki kapasitas cadangan sekitar 2 juta barel yang dapat dimobilisasi cepat, dan 1-2 juta barel lagi yang memerlukan waktu mobilisasi lebih lama.

Namun kalangan Barat menganggap itu belum cukup untuk menanggulangi gangguan pasokan. Misalnya, terhentinya produksi minyak mentah di Iran. Dalam kaitan ini, seolah-olah OPEC harus mengakomodasi konflik. Agar konflik tidak mengganggu pasar, kapasitas cadangan harus dinaikkan.

Pencegahan konflik adalah dengan menerapkan proses geopolitik yang damai. Pada kondisi tersebut akan tercipta stabilitas harga minyak sesuai mekanisme pasar yang berdasarkan keseimbangan permintaan dan pasokan.***

June 19, 2007

VIDEO NASIONALISME ALA CHAVEZ!!

 

 

 

 

 

TERSEDIA VIDEO DOKUMENTER TENTANG NASIONALISME ALA CHAVEZ!!

DALAM FORMAT VCD!

BAGI YANG BERMINAT, SILAHKAN HUBUNGI VIA E-MAIL (nusantara1928@gmail.com)

Dalam e-mail, jangan lupa sebutkan alamat peminat VCD (rahasia alamat peminat dijamin…tenang aja..)

BIAYA YANG DIKENAKAN HANYA BIAYA PEMBELIAN CD KOSONG DAN PENGIRIMAN.

INGAT, BUNG! SAYA TIDAK MENGAMBIL KEUNTUNGAN! HANYA BIAYA CD KOSONG (DOANG !!) DAN BIAYA PENGIRIMAN!! KEUNTUNGAN SAYA HANYA BERUPA KESADARAN ANDA MELIHAT SITUASI DUNIA SAAT INI!!

Jika Anda telah mendapatkannya, Anda bakal tahu bagaimana seorang Chavez sangat didukung secara mayoritas oleh warga Venezuela. Pihak militer Venezuela pun mendukungnya. Anda akan tahu kenapa….. Bandingkan dengan Indonesia…negeri banyolan… 🙂

May 14, 2007

PROOFS OF A CONSPIRACY!!!

(download PDF file; klik aja)

PROOFS OF A CONSPIRACY AGAINST ALL THE RELIGIONS AND GOVERNMENTS OF EUROPE, CARRIED ON IN THE SECRET MEETINGS OF FREE MASONS, ILLUMINATI, AND READING SOCIETIES, COLLECTED FROM GOOD AUTHORITIES,

BY JOHN ROBISON, A. M. PROFESSOR OF NATURAL PHILOSOPHY, AND SECRETARY TO THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF EDINBURGH.

SETTING INTELIJEN INTERNASIONAL SAAT INI

 power-elite-oil.jpg

Artikel terkait (klik aja):

SIAPA GEORGE W. BUSH?

SIAPA OSAMA BIN LADEN?!

FILE INTELIJEN: KONSPIRASI GLOBAL

TERORISME DAN PIPA MIGAS

Blog at WordPress.com.